Il prestigioso magazine Eurointelligence, diretto da Wolfgang Munchau, editorialista del Financial Times, ha dato conto oggi dell’articolo di Alberto Bagnai sul declino dell’economia italiana, apparso sulla International Review of Applied Economics (disponibile qui). Sotto il titolo “Is euro membership responsible for Italy’s poor economic performance?“, Eurointelligence riporta che:
We came across this academic paper by Alberto Bagnai, who tries to give an alternative explanation to the decline in Italian economic growth. The consensus view is that this is due to a supply-side shock – a view he disputes. The paper is rather technical, but he is essentially saying that it was Italy’s decision to join the eurozone, which resulted in an real-exchange appreciation, that was behind the persistent fall in productivity. The analytical framework he employs is based on a model by Kaldor, Dixon, and Thirwall in 1975 in which a demand shock can have permanent effects. In their conclusion, they point towards the set of policies that could get Italy out of the trap. He lists three:
1. A reversal of demand repression by the northern eurozone countries;
2. a reversal of the real appreciation in Italy;
3. a reduction of Italy’s structural dependence on foreign goods and services;
He concludes all three are very unlikely to happen.
L’attenzione di Eurointelligence, consultato regolarmente dallo staff delle maggiori istituzioni europee, è un segnale incoraggiante circa la qualità della ricerca promossa dai soci di a/simmetrie.